We provide causal evidence for the role of warfare in the development of medieval constitutionalism. Using novel data on the universe of German cities between 1290 and 1710, we show that military conflicts led to city councils that were larger, more likely to be elected by citizens, and more likely to include representatives of craft guilds. Additionally, these conflicts resulted in a substantial increase in local fiscal and spending capacity. We exploit the gender of the firstborn children of local nobles as a source of exogenous variation in conflicts.

The New Poor Law reform of 1834 induced dramatic and heterogeneous reductions in welfare spending across English and Welsh counties. Using the reform in a difference-in-differences instrumental variables strategy, we document a robust negative relationship between the generosity of welfare provision and criminal activity. Results are driven by non-violent property crimes and are stronger during months of seasonal agricultural unemployment, highlighting the particularly criminogenic combination of welfare cuts and precarious work opportunities for the economically vulnerable.

Between 1881 and 1910, Swedish society underwent two transformative developments: the largescale roll-out of a national railway network and the nascence of grassroots social movements which became deeply embedded in the fabric of social capital well into the twentieth century. Using exogenous variation in railway access arising from initial plans for the network, I show that as localities became better-connected, they were more likely to host a local movement, saw more rapid membership growth and a greater number of distinct organisations. The mobility of individuals is a key mechanism: results are driven by passenger arrivals into connected localities, not freight arrivals. I implement a market access framework to show that, by reducing least-cost distances between localities, railways intensified the influence exerted by neighbouring concentrations of membership, thereby enabling social movement spread. These results hold also when comparing differentially-connected movements within the same locality in the same year. Subsequently – in Sweden’s first election with universal male suffrage in 1911 – localities with greater social movement mobilisation exhibited higher turnout and Social Democrat vote shares.

I explore the political impact of the State Institute for Race Biology in interwar Sweden. Results of an anthropometric classification of the Swedish population according to pseudo-scientific notions of “Nordic purity” were disseminated in a propagandistic text. I find that, following the publication, districts deemed particularly “pure” exhibited relatively higher vote shares for right-wing parties catering to race-biological ideas. Insularity (low levels of immigration) and information (good access to libraries and newspaper media) are important moderators of this effect. Race-biological ideas appear to have been absorbed locally via direct correspondence with the Institute. My findings indicate that propaganda campaigns can shape political preferences, particularly when such campaigns make salient and speak directly to identity.

On 23 June 2016, the electorate of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Britain’s relationship with the European project has a long history, and deep historical factors may have played a role in shaping the outcome of the referendum. I show that past civilian experience and collective memory of war is one such factor. Combining geo-referenced data on bombing during the Second World War and district-level results of the EU Referendum, I show that districts with a greater number of bombing events exhibited higher Leave vote shares. This pattern is robust to controlling for other salient predictors of support for Leave and to using technical details of Luftwaffe technology to instrument for bombing. Collective memory is an important moderator; bombing predicts Leave vote shares only in districts where war graves and memorials from the Second World War are most prevalent. The same is not the case for war graves or memorials from other wars. Lastly, evidence from individual-level surveys suggests that Second World War-rooted Leave rhetoric was effective in swaying voters in high bombing intensity areas.